While polls are showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat, Harris is expected to win crucial swing states and enough electoral college votes needed to take the White House. Propelled by demographic trends, Harris’ campaign is likely to overcome President Biden’s high disapproval ratings and mixed record on the economy and immigration.
Since securing the nomination of Democratic Party in July, Harris has run a disciplined and steady campaign, largely avoiding significant missteps. She performed relatively well in the one televised presidential debate while selecting a vice-president running mate in Tim Walz who also held his own against his opponent JD Vance. The Harris-Walz ticket has also been a beneficiary of demographic trends that have become more apparent in the final week of campaigning.
The Gender Gap and Abortion Rights
The gender gap is expected to play a significant role in Harris’ campaign, particularly on the issue of abortion rights. Following the rollback of federal protections for abortion, Harris’s commitment to safeguarding reproductive rights has become a defining element of her campaign. If the trend from the mid-term elections continues, female voters are expected to show up in large numbers resulting in a significant gender gap in support, particularly in suburban and urban areas and among Asian voters. Her advocacy on this issue has not only mobilized her base, but has also swayed undecided voters concerned about the erosion of women’s rights. Meanwhile, Trump’s reliable support among evangelical voters have tapered off ever since the abortion issue was repositioned to a states’ rights issue by the Trump campaign.
Coalition of Diverse Voters
Beyond women voters, Harris is attracting young voters and minorities that reflect America’s increasingly diverse population. She is engaging younger voters on social media and partnering with organizations for voter registration drives. Harris has received endorsements from celebrities like Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Cardi B, Bad Bunny, Eminem, Bruce Springsteen, Jennifer Lopez and Julia Roberts. These endorsements have amplified her visibility and given her additional credibility among the millions of followers on social media, many registering and voting for the first time. Meanwhile, Harris is leveraging her identity as a Black and South Asian woman to bridge gaps between various communities and to garner votes in a wide swath of the electorate.
Support from ‘Never Trumpers’
Harris has received support from so-called ‘Never Trumpers’ — Republican and independent voters who oppose Trump’s candidacy. These voters, typically conservative or moderate in their views, have openly expressed their dissatisfaction with MAGA candidates and rhetoric within the GOP. Many of the ‘Never Trumpers’ see in Harris a candidate who could bring civility and bipartisanship back to Washington. In fact, Harris has even promised to include Republicans in her Cabinet. If the Republican primary voters who voted for Nikki Haley are willing to cross party lines, Harris can siphon off enough Republican votes to make a difference in swing states.
Key Counties in Swing States Turning Blue
Harris’ campaign depends on winning votes in critical counties in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Over the past several election cycles, counties such as Bucks (PA), Maricopa (AZ), Gwinnett (GA), and Brown (WI) have been leaning blue due to demographic changes. Harris’ campaign has mobilized volunteers to secure narrow wins in those counties through door-to-door canvassing and bilingual outreach. Pundits expect the winner of these counties to mirror the outcomes of their states.
Fundraising Success
Finally, Harris’ political operation has raised an astounding amount of campaign funds over a short period of time surpassing $1 billion since her nomination. Bolstered by effective online messaging and well-attended virtual events, Harris’ campaign has received contributions from donors large and small. The candidate with access to more funds and resources has the advantage in presidential campaigns.
Disclosure: This op-ed is a compilation of reports submitted by several authors and does not reflect the opinion of the staff and affiliates of GoInvest.
